MW in the Big Dance
Time to be a homer for the Mountain West.
Barring a horrific finish, SDSU is in. To realistically advance, we need a 7 or preferably a 6 seed to avoid a 1 or 2 before the Sweet Sixteen. We can defend anyone in the country, but scoring against a balanced top seed would probably require more luck than we've exhibited this year.
Our conference is pretty bad top to bottom, even without the anchor that is San Jose State. Kenpom has us as the 12th rated conference, and we're not real close to anyone above us. (The WCC is the highest rated basketball conference outside the Big 6 this year because no one really sucks.) A 12th rated conference is highly unlikely to have three teams attend the party. So barring a highly unlikely event in Vegas, that leaves Colorado St and Boise. I'd be surprised if anyone watching our games thinks CSU is the better of those two teams.
CSU has the better record, but they played nobody before the conference season began. Top wins were Georgia St (!!!), Colorado, UTEP and New Mexico St. Georgia St and New Mexico St may sneak into the tourney, but as bottom feeders. They also beat Boise on the road, and the Aztecs at home. They have no bad losses, and an experienced lineup. Kenpom has them as the 74th best team in the nation, which is probably more accurate than their RPI at 26.
Boise is definitely the hot team in the conference. They should go to Vegas at 24-7, and with two wins should reach the final at 26-7. They have one bad loss to Loyola Chicago on a neutral site, but that team sits at 155 in Kenpom, which isn't that bad. Boise is up to 38 in Kenpom and 30 in RPI. By the conference finals, those will be closer to 30 and 25. They rebound and defend well and have the only player of the top three teams - Derrick Marks - that can own a game. If they get to the conference final without another loss, it will be very tough to keep them out.
So presuming the 12th rated conference in the country only gets two teams, who will it be? I'd say the key game will be the semis in Vegas. If SDSU beats CSU, I think CSU will be a high seed in the NIT. If CSU wins, the winner of the conference tourney advances, and the other will be one of those teams that has a legitimate beef as to why they didn't get into the NCAAs.
An afterthought ... winning at Vegas this week locks in our tourney invitation as a 7 or higher, which avoids a 1 in the second game. This is a very big game for us if the end game is a return to the Sweet Sixteen.
Barring a horrific finish, SDSU is in. To realistically advance, we need a 7 or preferably a 6 seed to avoid a 1 or 2 before the Sweet Sixteen. We can defend anyone in the country, but scoring against a balanced top seed would probably require more luck than we've exhibited this year.
Our conference is pretty bad top to bottom, even without the anchor that is San Jose State. Kenpom has us as the 12th rated conference, and we're not real close to anyone above us. (The WCC is the highest rated basketball conference outside the Big 6 this year because no one really sucks.) A 12th rated conference is highly unlikely to have three teams attend the party. So barring a highly unlikely event in Vegas, that leaves Colorado St and Boise. I'd be surprised if anyone watching our games thinks CSU is the better of those two teams.
CSU has the better record, but they played nobody before the conference season began. Top wins were Georgia St (!!!), Colorado, UTEP and New Mexico St. Georgia St and New Mexico St may sneak into the tourney, but as bottom feeders. They also beat Boise on the road, and the Aztecs at home. They have no bad losses, and an experienced lineup. Kenpom has them as the 74th best team in the nation, which is probably more accurate than their RPI at 26.
Boise is definitely the hot team in the conference. They should go to Vegas at 24-7, and with two wins should reach the final at 26-7. They have one bad loss to Loyola Chicago on a neutral site, but that team sits at 155 in Kenpom, which isn't that bad. Boise is up to 38 in Kenpom and 30 in RPI. By the conference finals, those will be closer to 30 and 25. They rebound and defend well and have the only player of the top three teams - Derrick Marks - that can own a game. If they get to the conference final without another loss, it will be very tough to keep them out.
So presuming the 12th rated conference in the country only gets two teams, who will it be? I'd say the key game will be the semis in Vegas. If SDSU beats CSU, I think CSU will be a high seed in the NIT. If CSU wins, the winner of the conference tourney advances, and the other will be one of those teams that has a legitimate beef as to why they didn't get into the NCAAs.
An afterthought ... winning at Vegas this week locks in our tourney invitation as a 7 or higher, which avoids a 1 in the second game. This is a very big game for us if the end game is a return to the Sweet Sixteen.