From Ken Pomeroy's statistical analysis ...
* SDSU is #2 in Defensive Efficiency and #252 in Offensive Efficiency. There are only two schools in the Top 200 that have a broader discrepancy between Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. One is Colorado State, our next opponent. CSU is #47 (Offensive) and #325 (Defensive). Ironically, one of the teams that shares our tendency to be great on D, but not so much at the other end is UNLV, our last opponent.
* We're #332 out of 351 Division 1 teams in Adjusted Tempo, which is basically a measure of the number of possessions per game. As we've seen, our defensive pressure forces team out of rhythm and many of their shots are taken as the shot clock expires. We have the same tendency on offense, where - if we don't score in transition - many of our shots are taken at the backend of the shot clock. The overall result is that our games feature some of the fewest offensive possessions in college basketball. We see fewer possessions than Wyoming, and significantly fewer than Air Force, two teams that intentionally lower the # of possessions.
* A major factor in our resurgence in conference play can be attributed to increased focus on the offensive glass. We miss a lot of first attempts, but we're now retaining possession almost 38% of the time in conference play. That's an increase of nearly 10% from pre-conference. That means we're picking up about 6 extra offensive opportunities per game. Our effective FG % is about 46% (not good), so those extra offensive rebounds are getting us about 5-6 extra points per game in conference play. We beat Utah St, Nevada and BSU all by 3 at their place, and Fresno took us to OT at home. In other words, our work on the offensive glass is winning games for us.
* Another big factor is our improved closeouts on 3 point shooters. Overall, teams are shooting only 29% on 3 point attempts, which places us at #9 nationally. But if you isolate just our conference games, teams are only connecting on 23% of their 3 point attempts. That's spectacular, and would lead the nation by a large margin!
Personally, I don't think RPI means as much as it used to. For one thing, according to the Bracket Project, there are 35 tournament prognosticators who are more accurate than Joe Lunardi. For another, the committee now factors home court advantage, player injuries, and current results more effectively. Nonetheless, the thrashing we administer to UNLV on their court was huge, because they were above us in most of the computer rankings. For example, we moved up about 20 spots in Pomeroy's system, and they moved down about the same number. That size of adjustment hardly ever happens.
Most of the top prognosticators have us as a 10-12 seed in the Dance (if we're a 12, that could mean a game in Dayton). And most have the Mountain West as a 1 bid league; so we still have our work cut out for us. If we continue to run away with the league, we're probably a lock, but if we falter, our streak of tourney invitations could still come to an end. There is no question the USD loss is keeping us from locking up a tourney bid. It cost us dearly in the computer rankings.
