Let's take a quick look at the state of MW basketball this season. Just how bad are we? Or, put another way, if we don't win our conference tournament, do we end up in the NIT because all of our conference victories are discounted.
RPI is a poor indicator because it doesn't effectively factor in where a game is played. I prefer the Pomeroy rankings because they're more thorough.
Pomeroy has us as the 10th best conference in the land, behind the P5, Big East, American, Atlantic 10, and Colonial (the last having its best season ever). Our #10 ranking is actually up from #12 last year, mostly because San Jose St is no longer an anchor ... and kudos to their coach. We were also #10 two years ago, so overall, our conference is performing about where you would expect ... though it's down from the time when we competed for the best non-P5 conference.
Let's compare with the Pac 12, which is having a very good year. The Bracket Project has seven P12 teams in The Dance, with Washington in the First Four Out. Oregon, the top-ranked team in the conference, and a projected 3 seed, lost to both Boise and UNLV on the road, and barely beat Fresno at home. We took down Cal, a 7 seed, and barely lost to Utah (a projected 4 seed) on their court. There's no question our conference is not deep this year, but our upper tier teams are solid.
Next, let's look at the other teams that are locks in the tourney. Is there a single team this year that you would say the Aztecs can't beat? If we're truly a 12 seed (where we presently project), shouldn't there be at least a dozen teams that are clearly better? I'm just not seeing those teams, are you? There have been several reasons for our conference success, probably the biggest three being the addition of Shrigley, Winston's consistency, and Malik's emergence. Are there any other teams that have effectively added that much firepower mid-season?
If we beat Boise and UNLV, then reach our conference semis or finals, I don't see us being locked out. The selection committee will factor recent performance, and our offense has been much better over the last few weeks (we've moved up nearly 50 spots in offensive efficiency). The only ways we don't get an at-large berth are if a. we go in the tank and deserve the NIT or b. we give one of our inexplicably horrific performances on national TV in our conference semis or finals.
PS, if we had beaten the Toreros, an at-large berth wouldn't even be a question. We'd be in, with at least a 10 seed. That loss haunts us. The only positive is its bad taste may have contributed to our run through the conference schedule.
RPI is a poor indicator because it doesn't effectively factor in where a game is played. I prefer the Pomeroy rankings because they're more thorough.
Pomeroy has us as the 10th best conference in the land, behind the P5, Big East, American, Atlantic 10, and Colonial (the last having its best season ever). Our #10 ranking is actually up from #12 last year, mostly because San Jose St is no longer an anchor ... and kudos to their coach. We were also #10 two years ago, so overall, our conference is performing about where you would expect ... though it's down from the time when we competed for the best non-P5 conference.
Let's compare with the Pac 12, which is having a very good year. The Bracket Project has seven P12 teams in The Dance, with Washington in the First Four Out. Oregon, the top-ranked team in the conference, and a projected 3 seed, lost to both Boise and UNLV on the road, and barely beat Fresno at home. We took down Cal, a 7 seed, and barely lost to Utah (a projected 4 seed) on their court. There's no question our conference is not deep this year, but our upper tier teams are solid.
Next, let's look at the other teams that are locks in the tourney. Is there a single team this year that you would say the Aztecs can't beat? If we're truly a 12 seed (where we presently project), shouldn't there be at least a dozen teams that are clearly better? I'm just not seeing those teams, are you? There have been several reasons for our conference success, probably the biggest three being the addition of Shrigley, Winston's consistency, and Malik's emergence. Are there any other teams that have effectively added that much firepower mid-season?
If we beat Boise and UNLV, then reach our conference semis or finals, I don't see us being locked out. The selection committee will factor recent performance, and our offense has been much better over the last few weeks (we've moved up nearly 50 spots in offensive efficiency). The only ways we don't get an at-large berth are if a. we go in the tank and deserve the NIT or b. we give one of our inexplicably horrific performances on national TV in our conference semis or finals.
PS, if we had beaten the Toreros, an at-large berth wouldn't even be a question. We'd be in, with at least a 10 seed. That loss haunts us. The only positive is its bad taste may have contributed to our run through the conference schedule.
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